Towards Detection of Early Warning Signals on Financial Crises

The financial crises of 2001-2002 and 2008-2009 had a significant impact on the world economy. In this paper, we investigate whether early warning signals can be seen in financial time series preceding the crises. In our analysis, we use data on the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Federal Reserve Interest Rate. We construct a random process describing the occurrence of positive and negative signals in a time series preceding the financial crisis of 2001-2002. We use the constructed random process and a time series for the period 2001-2008 to assess the probability of a crisis to occur in 2008-2009. We show that the probability exhibits a steady growth and conclude that the proposed method demonstrates an ability to register early warning signals on the global financial crisis of 2008-2009

Legal regulation of public procurement in the EU and the EAEU: Trends to digitalization

The article touches upon some problems of legal regulation of public procurement in two organizations — the European Union (EU) and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). A wide EU experience in public procurement regulation could be helpful for the EAEU, as it is facing now the same problems as the EU did, for example the digitalization of public procurement.Russian researchers often refer to European experience in order to find best practices, but the European experience in the legal regulation of public procurement is poorly examined by Russian authors. The aim of the study is to compare the process of digitalization of public procurement regulation in the EU and in the EAEU, highlight the EU instruments in this sphere which could be useful for the EAEU and point some common features and differences of the digitalization process in the sphere of public procurement in these organizations.In the article the authors compare different fields of public procurement legal regulation in the EU and in the EAEU and both general and specific instruments of digitalization in the sphere of public procurement existing in the EU and in the EAEU. The study is based on the analysis of the EU law and legal precedents.As a result the authors make a conclusion that some EU instruments of public procurement legal regulation could be applied in the EAEU or its member states law considering the difference in historical development of public procurement legal regulation of the organizations and positive experience of the EAEU member states

Anticipating Recessions using Inclination Analysis

Recessions are economic downturns that can be recognized from macro-indicators such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Federal Reserve Interest Rate (FRIR). To provide early-warning signals of recessions and similar systemic transitions, here we propose a new approach based on pattern recognition, called inclination analysis [1, 2]. For this purpose, we develop a stochastic model based on time-series analysis to assess the probability of a recession to occur at a given moment in the past, present, or future. Calibrating our model to data proceeds in three steps, involving the coarse-graining of the available input time series, the identification of short series motifs that foreshadow recessions, and the optimization of key model parameters according to the model’s desired forecasting horizon

Comparative assessment of safety and immunogenicity of domestic tetravalent Ultrix® quadri and trivalent Ultrix® influenza vaccines in pregnant women in the second and third trimesters

The aim of the study – to evaluate the safety and efficacy of the quadrivalent influenza vaccine "Ultrix® Quadri" versus the trivalent vaccine "Ultrix®" in pregnant womenЦель исследования – оценить безопасность и эффективность гриппозной четырехвалентной вакцины «Ультрикс® Квадри» в сравнении с трехвалентной вакциной «Ультрикс®» у беременны

Lateral Root Initiation in the Parental Root Meristem of Cucurbits: Old Players in a New Position

While in most higher plants, including the model system Arabidopsis thaliana, the formation of lateral root primordia is induced in the elongation zone of the parental root, in seven plant families, including Cucurbitaceae, an alternative root branching mechanism is established such that lateral roots are initiated directly in the apical meristem of the parental root. In Arabidopsis, the transcription factor GATA23 and MEMBRANE-ASSOCIATED KINASE REGULATOR4 (MAKR4) are involved in the gene regulatory network of lateral root initiation. Among all marker genes examined, these are the earliest known marker genes up-regulated by auxin during lateral root initiation. In this study, putative functional orthologs of Arabidopsis GATA23 and MAKR4 were identified in cucumber (Cucumis sativus) and squash (Cucurbita pepo). Both cucurbits contained 26 genes encoding GATA family transcription factors and only one MAKR4 gene. Phylogenetic and transcriptional analysis of up-regulation by auxin led to the identification of GATA23 putative functional orthologs in Cucurbitaceae – CpGATA24 and CsGATA24. In squash, CpMAKR4 was up-regulated by naphthylacetic acid (NAA) and, similar to MAKR4 in Arabidopsis, indole-3-butyric acid (IBA). A detailed analysis of the expression pattern of CpGATA24 and CpMAKR4 in squash roots from founder cell specification until emergence of lateral root primordia was carried out using promoter-fluorescent reporter gene fusions and confocal microscopy. Their expression was induced in the protoxylem, and then expanded to founder cells in the pericycle. Thus, while the overall expression pattern of these genes was significantly different from that in Arabidopsis, in founder cells their expression was induced in the same order as in Arabidopsis. Altogether, these findings suggest that in Cucurbitaceae the putative functional orthologs of GATA23 and MAKR4 might play a role in founder cell specification and primordium positioning during lateral root initiation. The role of the protoxylem in auxin transport as a trigger of founder cells specification and lateral root initiation is discussed

Antiviral Activity of Extracts from Basidiomycetes for Orthopoxviruses

Carried out was evaluation of the effect of water extracts from basidiomycetes in Vero cell culture on variola virus, and vaccinia virus. Antiviral effect demonstrated Inonotus obliquus (Chaga), befungin and melanin from chaga, Ganoderma applanatum (Artist’s Bracket) , Fomitopsis officinalis (Larch Fungus)

Новые аддукты скипидара, конифоли с цитраконовым ангидридом и итаконовой кислотой

The reaction of pine gum rosin, turpentine and its components (α-pinene, ∆3-carene, α-terpinene) with citraconic anhydride and itaconic acid was investigated. It was shown that α-terpinene, in contrast to α-pinene and ∆3-carene, reacts with citraconic anhydride to give the unknown cycloaddition reaction product. Its structure was studied by the 2D NMR spectroscopy. Turpentine reacts with itaconic acid forming a complex mixture that contains esters of terpenic alcohols and itaconic acid. Reaction of rosin with citraconic anhydride was studied at 140–180 °С within 0.5–8 hrs in presence of catalytic amounts of H2SO4, MgCl2, AlCl3, FeCl3 and new citraconopimaric adducts containing up to ~70 % of citraconopimaric acid as a mixture of two С15–CH3 and С16–CH3 isomers in equimolar ratio. The highest content of С15–CH3 isomer of citraconopimaric acid (35.5–36.0 %) in the adducts was reached within 4–8 hrs at 180 °С in presence of 1–2 mass. % H2SO4. The reaction of rosin with citraconic anhydride at 140–160 °С leads to the formation of adduct containing up to 30–50 % of citraconopimaric acid isomers. The synthesized adducts may be used for production of composite materials for different applications (adhesives, polymer composite additives including rubber blends for tire production, components of grease-cooling liquids).Исследована реакция сосновой живичной канифоли, скипидара и его компонентов (α-пинен, ∆3-карен, α-терпинен) с цитраконовым ангидридом и итаконовой кислотой. Показано, что α-терпинен, в отличие от α-пинена и ∆3-карена, взаимодействует с цитраконовым ангидридом с образованием ранее неизвестного продукта реакции циклоприсоединения, структура которого была установлена методом двумерной спектроскопии ЯМР. Скипидар и итаконовая кислота взаимодействуют с получением сложной смеси продуктов, в том числе эфиров терпеновых спиртов и итаконовой кислоты. Изучено взаимодействие канифоли и цитраконового ангидрида при 140–180 °С в течение 0,5–8 ч с использованием каталитических добавок H2SO4, MgCl2, AlCl3, FeCl3 и получены новые канифольно-цитраконовые аддукты, содержащие до ~70 % цитраконопимаровой кислоты в виде двух изомеров С15–CH3 и С16–CH3 в эквимолярном соотношении. Установлено, что наиболее высокое содержание С15–CH3 изомера цитраконопимаровой кислоты (35,5–36,0 %) в аддуктах достигается при проведении реакции сосновой живичной канифоли и цитраконового ангидрида при 180 °С в присутствии 1–2 мас. % H2SO4 в течение 4–8 ч. При температуре реакции 140–160 °С количество изомеров цитраконопимаровой кислоты в аддуктах уменьшается и составляет 30–50 %. Разработанные аддукты представляют интерес для создания импортозамещающих композиционных материалов различного функционального назначения (адгезивов, модификаторов полимерных композиций, в том числе резиновых смесей для производства шин, компонентов смазочно-охлаждающих жидкостей и др.)

Влияние элементов технологии возделывания на фитосанитарное состояние посевов и урожайность зерновых культур

The study aims to assess the impact of the main tillage system, predecessors and mineral fertilizers on the phytosanitary condition of crops and grain yield in the grain fallow crop rotation. The authors researched the educational and experimental farm «Minderlinskoye» FSBEI HE Krasnoyarsk State Agrarian University, located in the Krasnoyarsk forest-steppe conditions. It was found that the application of the herbicide tank mixture (preparations Puma Super 100 + Sekator Turbo) has a significant positive effect on the regulatory impact on the weed component of agrophytocenosis. The authors established the effect in variants with traditional moldboard main tillage (plowing at 20–22 cm) and without it in fertilized and unfertilized backgrounds. The highest technical efficiency of the herbicides applied was observed in the moldboard treatment variant (86–94%) compared to thenon-treatment variant. The authors revealed a decrease in the damage to the underground organs of spring wheatwhen placed after green manure rapeseed fallow in options with moldboard plowing by 20–22 cm and without basic tillage compared to such a predecessor as corn. The index of root rot development increases by 23.2% (plowing, fertilized background) and 37.5% (plowing, unfertilized background) when barley is placed as a second grain crop. These figures are 21.0% and 33.2% for no-tillage, which ultimately affects the yield of grain crops. The highest biological yield of spring wheat grain was obtained in the variant with moldboard plowing after green manure rapeseed fallow. The grain yield of spring wheat was higher in the variant without basic tillage on the fertilized background when placing crops of this crop after corn.Цель исследований – оценить влияние системы основной обработки почвы, предшественников и минеральных удобрений на фитосанитарное состояние посевов и урожайность зерновых культур в зернопаропропашном севообороте. Исследования проведены в учебно-опытном хозяйстве «Миндерлинское» ФГБОУ ВО Красноярский ГАУ, расположенном в условиях Красноярской лесостепи. Установлено, что применение баковой смеси гербицидов (Пума Супер 100 + Секатор Турбо) в вариантах с традиционной отвальной основной обработки почвы (вспашка на 20–22 см) и без ее проведения на удобренном и неудобренном фонах оказывает значительный положительный эффект регулирующего воздействия на сорный компонент агрофитоценоза. Самая высокая техническая эффективность применяемых гербицидов отмечена в варианте с отвальной обработкой (86–94 %) по сравнению с вариантом без ее проведения. Выявлено снижение заболеваемости подземных органов яровой пшеницы при размещении после сидерального рапсового пара в вариантах с отвальной вспашкой на 20–22 см и без проведения основной обработки почвы по сравнению с таким предшественником, как кукуруза. При размещении ячменя в качестве повторной зерновой культуры индекс развития корневых гнилей возрастает на 23,2 (вспашка, удобренный фон) и 37,5 % (вспашка, неудобренный фон). При отказе от обработки почвы эти цифры составляют соответственно 21,0 и 33,2 %, что в конечном счете сказывается на урожайности зерновых культур. Наибольшая биологическая урожайность зерна яровой пшеницы получена в варианте с отвальной вспашкой после сидерального рапсового пара. В варианте без основной обработки почвы урожайность зерна яровой пшеницы была выше на удобренном фоне при размещении посевов этой культуры после кукурузы

Infective safety of blood and haemostatic potential of fresh frozen plasma

Comparative analysis of leucodepletion effectiveness and influence of filtering devices (FD) «Leucosep» («Interoco»). «Leukotrap WB» (Pall), «Leukoflex» (Macopharma) over blood-clotting was carried out. The effectiveness of leucodepletion by the listed filtering devices was found satisfactory.Leukodeplicity influence on blood coagulation was estimated, and the absence of changes in indexes of blood coagulation after been filtered by “Leukosep" was defined,and changes in (fibrinogen, fibrinolytic activity, prothrombin time) their components been filtered by «Leukoflex», as well as changes in indexes of APTV and antithrombin III in components been filtered «Leukotrap WB». Aberration of haemostatic potential FFP were within physiological norm. Influence of long-term keeping (240 days) fresh frozen plasma, been filtered by «Leukotrap WB» at a moderate law level of temperature (-41o C).At the process of keeping haemostatic potential FFP was saved. The most considerable changes were characterized for APTB (29,9%) and for time of lyses euglobulinum bundle.Изучали эффективность лейкодеплеции фильтрующими устройствами (ФУ) «Лейкосеп» («Интероко»), «Leukotrap WB» (Pall), «Leukoflex» (Macopharma), выявили удовлетворительную эффективность лейкодеплеции перечисленными фильтрующими устройствами. Оценивали влияние лейкодеплеции на свертывание крови, выявили отсутствие изменений показателей свертывания после фильтрации ФУ «Лейкосеп» и изменение их (фибриногена, фибринолитической активности, протромбинового времени) в компонентах, фильтрованных «Leukoflex», а также изменение показателей АПТВ и антитромбина III в компонентах, фильтрованных «Leukotrap WB». Отклонения гемостатического потенциала СЗП находились в пределах физиологической нормы. Определяли влияние долгосрочного хранения (240 дней) свежезамороженной плазмы, фильтрованной «Leukotrap WB» при умеренно низкой температуре (-41° С). Выявили сохранение гемостатического потенциала СЗП в процессе хранения. Наибольшие изменения были характерны для АПТВ (29,9%) и времени лизиса эуглобулинового сгустка (31,5%)